Ten Rules For Trading

So, some of you may have been wondering what has been happening in my life, well hopefully at least one.

I’ve been based in the Middle East for the last few weeks and have been working in brokerage. My roles have been varied from making tea, updating reports, writing business proposals and purchasing cutlery for a prince. Yeah, you read the last one correctly, trust me, it surprised me as well; especially as I had been learning how to load a ship with grain the previous day.

So what brings me to writing again? Well today (well, yesterday technically) there was a 7% collapse in oil prices. That’s a pretty big amount to the uninitiated. And I happened to be on the wrong side of this. Now I didn’t lose twenty thousand pounds or anything, but what I got was a course on what to do when trading. Now obviously this is wear I insert a legal disclaimer not to take my advice seriously, that it is a matter or opinion and not fact, that I’ll be not liable for your mistake and that you have to be an absolute idiot to take advice from a blog. Might as well ask Deloitte or KPMG to audit someone!

Right without further ado, here is my list of rules (so far) of what to do when trading

1. Always Trust Yourself

Might be a bit odd for a first rule, but it is important. When you go into the market, there is only one person who did it. There is only one person who says enough is enough. Whatever happens, just as in life, you are ultimately responsible for your position. So, when you go in, know that you will have to get yourself out.

2. Don’t listen to others

While taking ideas from someone is okay, if you want to go short. Go short. Even if you were told to go long. You are responsible for the outcome of your input.

3. Don’t Go Chasing

This is quite simple, when you have made a loss, don’t go chasing a profit like a monkey running at the window. Go take a step back and reassess what is happening in the market.

4. Always Cut Mistakes

You are allowed to make mistakes. Just don’t keep them! No matter what is happening in the market, profit or loss. If didn’t mean, get rid of it.

5. Don’t have fat fingers.

It means, avoid making silly mistakes, such as hitting three before hitting enter. Never done that……

6. A trader is only as good as their last trade

It doesn’t matter that you predicted the financial crash, or the dotcom bubble, if you lost it all yesterday. It’s like in football, only the last result matters. (Unless you support Arsenal, can’t change from being shit if it’s part of the DNA)

7. Don’t be a sheep

Know this looks like rule 2, but it’s not. It’s similar. To make big money quickly, you have to be ahead of the curve (easy in principal, not in practice). So, it’s not just listening to others and trusting oneself; it’s also being a bit bold. Not cocky, the market will, just tear you to shreds.

8. Be Lucky!

There’s no two ways about it, if you are being bold

9. Have more than one escape plan

When you enter the market, know what loss you are willing to make. And follow it! If you ain’t lucky, no point in being stubborn and stupid either. Might as well be a Marxist then. In the same light, take the profit when you get to the point you wished. Sure, there may be some regret when the position would have made more money. You can still chuckle to the bank, even if you are not laughing your head off,

10. Follow the cardinal rule of Uncle Digby!

The trend is your friend!

 

 

 

Just some quick thoughts on the Brexit from yesterday

  • The UK-EU Custom Offer for the entire UK. Source: RTE
    • Won’t be done prior to the April 2019 deadline, legal issue as not allowed under Art50.
    • Still no knowledge if it would tie either side to each other a-la Turkey-EU Custom Union
    • No knowledge on compliance.
    • Does solve the N. Ireland issue as no fragmentation of UK.
      • For the short-term at least

Analysis: It’s a repackaged offer from last week (see @SamuelMarcLowe; senior researcher on Centre of European Reform) that at face value would be rejected by the Conservative. The European Research Group (ERG; a committee in the Conservative party) will reject anything that doesn’t allow a full trade agreement with third-parties. That would almost certainly require a check at the Irish border, unless there is a large concession by the EU.

Entry 47

What am I up to these days?

So, a few of have passed since I had gotten my results back for the GDL course and I have stayed pretty silent on my life since. Well at least those who are not in the loop. I’ve currently been helping out at my sister’s salon (Duck & Dry at Old Spitalfields Market; and no this is not a paid piece content). Well, it’s a blow-dry bar and it’s honestly a weird experience. For those less initiated with myself, working at blow-dry bar is not exactly what I would call my natural calling. Nor would I say that I love the job. Is it a terrible thing? No, of course not. It’s just…that I’m not using any of skills that I’ve learned at University (well any of them) and essentially all I use are things taught to me at school and at home. It’s the service industry of course, so the etiquette classes from school are the most helpful, beyond the primary school level of being able to write coherent sentences. On the flip side, I’ve been rejected from jobs that state that they just want GCSE’s, but two years of work experience saying that I’m under qualified. It is as though the skit from Kanye’s School Spirit is an apt description of what shall be me in the future.

Otherwise, been making a lot of food over the last few days from kala chana to lasagne. Also my jeans have become religious; so I’ll be spending some money in the next few days.

Poem 4

Glass ceiling
Showing me hope and dreams
The water pours down
There’s no crack

*tap tap tap*

No response?
What’s the point?
Wasn’t I born free?
Should I even care?

Just feel lost
For what cost?
Just to begin
And fit in?

If I scream and plead,
Will anyone hear me?
Or is that just part of the cruel box,
treated like a beggar; seen but not heard

Look back up, the glass has gotten thicker
Or is there more water…maybe both
There’s much to do
But I need to escape

Just fate to deal with now
Take a breath and look down
What’s that now?
I’m standing on glass

Poem 3

Working Title Rush:

Heart pumping

Each ball of sweat Just dripping I can’t ignore it

Who are these people Standing on the right

Don’t they realise

This is London

People have places to go. We don’t care if they can relax. That their friends want to chat, I’ve got a train to catch.

Waiting is a suckers game I want to murder on the dance floor, go grab dinner with grandma.  I’ve got a world to conquer. I haven’t been waiting all night for this fight.  I’ll be on the run having a some blue nun .

Might hazard a guess that I’m no Salah, But I ain’t no Paulinhio either,  I plan on Kane-ing after August,  I’m Onna-mah way to the top. Better watch out, Fergie ain’t got the time to save you.

Time for me to fly past. So move out the way or get blown away

Green Chutney Recipe

So I made some green chutney the other day, while it’s a bit spicy you can change the level of heat by reducing the chilies in the process. There’s no exact measurements as I did not think about it when making it, so everything will be guess work, but there are certain ratios that need to be followed.

You will need:

1 food processor
(I am assuming that you have a knife and a board to cut on)
1 handful of mint leaves (told you I don’t measure properly)
6 handfuls of coriander (leaves + stems)
3 green chillies
1 red chilli
4 teaspoons of cumin seeds
1 teaspoon of red chilli powder
1 teaspoon of turmeric powder
1 teaspoon of garam masala
2 teaspoons of salt
1 lemon to squeeze

All you have to do is roughly chop the leaves and chillies. Pop in the processor with all the spices until a smooth green paste.

That’s it! I don’t have a photo, as I already finished it, but if I do make another batch then I’ll post a picture. It’s quite spicy, boy does it taste good.

Why (2.0)

Well the original reason why I started up the blog, is to start writing out my thoughts on what I was learning at law school. However, life goes on and now I wish to keep my domain and I have yet to think of a good reason for dumping the website. While I may consider switching where I maintain the website, I’m enjoying the ease of wordpress, though it means that my friends beyond the great firewall are unable to view it.

I’ve realised that I have still yet to answer why I have the website still, I mean the domain is mine and the email is run separately to this (if you need help doing this yourself, then shoot me a message). It’s currently an odd concept that is running through my mind. I guess it’s to take a break from social media and just focus on what I think; even if it’s just something stupid. I want to write more poetry, but I have never been big on publishing it. Thus, I can use it as a launching pad into the unknown. I don’t why I fear sharing them, I guess it’s because my poems are usually a personal matter. I doubt that will change for the time being, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

I’ll probably write more about politics here, than on other platforms. Mainly as I can’t be asked to deal with the backlash, but more importantly I prefer the long-read style that one presumes with a blog rather than a quip that other platforms would not work well with.

Might also post some reviews of random things. From my own cooking (oh shit, I could start a vegetarian food blog!), movies, football, coffee…etc. You get the point. Got an idea, shoot me a message via the contact page.

In terms of how frequent? Not sure, I’ll aim to write more than once a week for now; but we’ll see how that goes. Might post picture or two as well, the site needs a bit of sprucing up.

Anything else? Not that I can think about now.

Remember; Don’t Panic, it’s Hanik

Poem 2

Not sure about a title, looking for recommendation. Shout out to Chris for the picture.

Broken
How else can I describe the feeling
Hours upon hours spent doing what?
My wounds need tending
I need to get out of this rut

Alone
Just stuck with my own thoughts
While it’s good company; it’s not ideal
It’s not as though I did something wrong and was caught,
Time to go back to the highlight reel

Cry
It’s not the end,
Even if I could make sure of it
It’s not my time to ascend
It’s time to check out my grit

Breath
One is not entitled to the fruits of one’s labour,
Action will always be better than inaction,
So it’s time to sharpen my best sabre,
No more dissatisfaction

Nasty
Time to act unapologetically,
Even if my life has just been swirled
Where do I want to be?
On top of the world

The Chequers Affair

Coming into the weekend I was ready to write a review of the agreement that was struck by the Cabinet at Chequers, but given the events in last couple of days, all my work has been thrown out of the window. While there are suggestions that there will be a leadership challenge by the Brexiteers and ERG against Mrs. May, I have gone through many rewrites with the constantly changing news, I have currently just given up on trying to write something that is fully up to date and just express my views on the agreement at Chequers, which was the original plan; I can then at the end express why I believe that some members have resigned over the issue.

The first major issue that arises is the free trade area of goods, which is essentially a pillar for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU. While a FTA for goods is possible in theory, as there are certain goods that are allowed in and out, but for across the board? That just looks like cherry picking one section of the single market, which has already been vetoed by the EU. While it is possible in theory, I do not think that the EU would agree to this, without forcing further concessions into the single market. Nor does it make sense that this will avoid friction at the border as the document later goes on to end free movement. How does one plan to uphold the common travel area and not allow free movement of people; unless there is a divide at sea, given that a physical border in Ireland is a no go? While that is plausible, it would create an internal border inside the United Kingdom; which will not be acceptable to the Unionists in Northern Ireland nor would it be acceptable for the hard-line Brexiteers.

Looking at the next point about the common rulebook for all goods including agri-food seems to out of place of the comments made by the Prime Minister as she said that we are leaving the common agriculture policy; while the policy is complicated, what is meant by this phrase is not well explained. While we are expecting a white paper on this, seeing language like this would unlikely garner support from the entire Conservative Party, which would require the Government to look across the benches to the opposition. An odd situation, but let us be honest; nothing has been conventional in this process.

This unconventional process an been seen in the proposal for what can only be described as fluff. The notion that either side wishes to have less open economies (or promote closed economies) is just laughable, regardless of which side of the argument you fall on. The differences lie in what should be freely traded, which seems to be as much as possible. The problem that this position relies on almost full co-operation between the two sides, but why would EU agree to bind itself to the UK’s decision or take note of the UK’s position; as they have no requirement to place UK interests over its own members. This also seems to hinder both sides when re-evaluating what deal they wish to strike with other nations, as for a deal to be made with any third-country, each side would be restricted. While for the alignment argument this makes sense, but then what are the benefits to leaving the EU while fully aligning? It doesn’t make any sense. Why create more hassle? By just creating a new system to fulfil the results of an advisory referendum is just nonsense. It would more sense to ignore the referendum or go the whole nine yards, the middle ground doesn’t make anyone happy, nor does it help anyone. What is the gain? While one may point to the potential gains to services, it does remove any chance to negotiate on goods as a carrot to a third country. While possible, would it not be better to have a veto in the EU, when it came to new trade agreements and new policy proposals? I would think so.

The legal framework in the application and interpretation of the UK-EU agreement, is not helpful. Well in the form that it has been described at least. The UK has paid due concern to EU case law (when applying EU law) and to continue this is not a differing system. The concern of disputes is more interesting and thus concerning; with the lack of detail.  I’m going to speculate that an EFTA court solution is what will arise from this, but I do not see the EFTA members being happy if the actual EFTA court is used; thus, a new separate UK-EU court of arbitration committee being set-up. However, with such little information: we will have to wait and see.

The final item about the new facilitated customs arrangement, makes little sense to me. While it works for the island of Great Britain, the tariff policy for Northern Ireland vs the Republic of Ireland seems to be open to abuse. If I can take goods across the border without checks, why wouldn’t I choose the cheapest one and then just cross the border. While one can mitigate this by checking shops and more monitoring systems, it would be a costly solution, while relying on the trust system. We should also be asking what percentage of failures (goods not checked, that has the wrong tariff applied) is acceptable, if any? This all relies on the EU accepting this agreement as well. At the moment, I cannot see this being accepted by the EU. With the backstop, there may be no actual cliff-edge if the negotiations take too long; but there is no backstop for a rejection of the proposal.

The resignation of the two prominent Brexiteers in the cabinet are not a tandem to bring down Mrs May, though Mr Johnson’s resignation is a ploy for power in the future. David Davis has clearly resigned for the change of style in negotiations by Mrs May. Mrs May has decided to try and bypass the EU infrastructure with direct talks with the head of States. I doubt that this will work, given the Commission leading the negotiations for the Member States and having  EU law on their side with the notion subsidiarity when dealing with future of the Union. With this plan, Mr Davis’s role in leading the Department for Exiting the European Union and being the head negotiator is no longer the case. Instead of becoming a middleman like his successor, Dominic Raab. His plan to to leave the department is to ensure that the leadership of the department fully believes in the plan, instead of someone just following a plan. Personally, I find this quite a sensible move by Mr Davis. The headline resignation was, and still is, Mr Johnson’s sudden change of heart. While I believe that Mr Johnson shares some of my criticism (if not all), there is a clear political motivation for Mr Johnson to distance himself from the plan. In doing so, he won’t alienate himself from the Tory base and can criticise the plan without having to come up with a solid plan himself. It would be a shrewd move, if wasn’t blatantly obvious to anyone who has spent more than ten minutes listening to all the regular political commentators.

While it is true that this is a negotiation and thus the proposal is not final. What lies ahead for both sides, be it the argument or UK/EU, there is a lot more to be done with far too little time. With ongoing pantomime in Parliament, I would be ready to expect the unexpected.