Just some quick thoughts on the Brexit from yesterday

  • The UK-EU Custom Offer for the entire UK. Source: RTE
    • Won’t be done prior to the April 2019 deadline, legal issue as not allowed under Art50.
    • Still no knowledge if it would tie either side to each other a-la Turkey-EU Custom Union
    • No knowledge on compliance.
    • Does solve the N. Ireland issue as no fragmentation of UK.
      • For the short-term at least

Analysis: It’s a repackaged offer from last week (see @SamuelMarcLowe; senior researcher on Centre of European Reform) that at face value would be rejected by the Conservative. The European Research Group (ERG; a committee in the Conservative party) will reject anything that doesn’t allow a full trade agreement with third-parties. That would almost certainly require a check at the Irish border, unless there is a large concession by the EU.

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